"The structure of China's gear industry is unreasonable. Therefore, a small number of enterprises have suffered losses and even went bankrupt. However, in this micro-growth situation, Shanghai Gear Factory and Shandong Shengrui have successfully completed structural adjustments in a timely manner. On the road of rapid development.” On December 10, 2015, Lu Chao, director of the Gear Technology Branch of the China Automotive Engineering Society and chairman of Tianjin Tianhai Synchronous Group, said at the “2015 China Gear Industry Development Summit” held in Shanghai. During the two-day meeting, experts from all over the country and representatives from various enterprises felt the urgency and pressure of the situation. Everyone exchanged their views and coping strategies.
In 2015, China's automatic transmissions increased by 30%, and new energy vehicles increased by three times. Lu Chao said with emotion: "The changes in these automotive industries have given us a lot of inspiration in the gear industry. In 2016, China's gear industry will enter a new round of industry. The critical period of structural adjustment."
The cause of China's economic power failure
Xu Zhenyu of the School of Economics of Beijing Technology and Business University at the China Gear Industry Development Summit 2015 believes that from the experience of Japan, the decline in development growth is an inevitable phenomenon, high growth has ended permanently, China’s economic power is depleted, and the basic dividends are gradually disappearing. It is imperative for the global economy to rebalance, and China’s exports will be in a long-term downturn. During the “Twelfth Five-Year Plan” period, the total population dependency ratio has bottomed out, the Lewis turning point has arrived, and the population movement between rural and urban areas has reached its limit; real estate and land markets are excessive. Capitalization has led to asset bubbles, industrial structural distortions and social conflicts, and land rents have become increasingly expensive.
Dr. Chen Yongjie, deputy secretary-general of the China International Economic Exchange Center and director of the Research Office of the All-China Federation of Industry and Commerce, analyzed the macroeconomic situation. He believes that although China's manufacturing has shown the world's number one characteristics in many aspects, such as the overall size of the manufacturing industry. China's manufacturing industry has already lived in many aspects, such as the scale of manufacturing imports and exports, the output of major manufacturing products, the number of manufacturing companies, the number of manufacturing employees, the number of manufacturing patents, manufacturing competitiveness, and the integrity of the manufacturing industry system. The world's number one, but China's manufacturing industry is still at the second-rate level of technical quality, compared with the comprehensive indicators of China's four major world manufacturing powers such as the United States, Japan, and Germany. Among them, weak independent innovation ability, low product quality, low efficiency of resource and energy use, low overall labor quality, large pollution emissions, unreasonable industrial structure, low level of informationization, and low degree of internationalization of industries are still constraints. The main obstacle to the high-end and strong development of China's manufacturing industry.
Xu Zhenyu believes that the current smog has spawned the environmental protection industry and the new energy industry. At the same time, the rise in wages has forced the factory machinery to be automated. The current situation has forced China's manufacturing industry to innovate to develop.
Declining marginal efficiency drives innovation
Li Shengqi, secretary general of the China Gear Industry Alliance, pointed out that Li Shengqi also has a deep understanding of China's economic development stage. He believes that in China, which is in the stage of catching up with the economy, the overall manufacturing industry will be driven by low-level structural excess and factors. The marginal revenue diminishes to the development direction of efficiency and innovation-driven, innovative and continuous innovation. In this process, the innovation-driven, efficiency-driven, factor-driven “hybrid” will become the main driving force for China's economic development, and the gear industry will also complete its transformation and upgrading in the context of a large economy.
Ending pure fuel vehicle production in 2050 is not just a dream
From January to October 2015, the cumulative production of new energy vehicles was 206,900 units, a three-fold increase over the same period last year. The production of pure electric passenger vehicles was 87,100 units, a three-fold increase over the same period of last year. The production of plug-in hybrid passenger vehicles produced 45,500 units, a three-fold increase over the same period last year. Pure electric commercial vehicles produced 59,300 units, a year-on-year increase of 9 times, and plug-in hybrid commercial vehicles produced 15,000 units, an increase of 88% year-on-year. Dr. Zhang Yaming from China Automotive Engineering Research Institute Co., Ltd. said at the meeting that relying on the continuous advancement of technology, the future automobile world will be the era of the gradual decline of traditional fuel vehicles. The end of pure fuel vehicle production in 2050 is not just a dream. He believes: "The hub motor (electric wheel) drive, no need for an automotive transmission system, is worthy of attention."
The era of replacing traditional gears has been developed
In response to the current economic pressure and the new pattern of technological innovation industrial restructuring, Lu Chao made several suggestions to the participants: he said, first of all, we must carefully study the core content of 2025 made in China and formulate relevant plans for the company in the next 10 years. (Including the "13th Five-Year Plan" and "14th Five-Year Plan"), China Manufacturing 2015 is divided into three major parts: five items, five major projects, and ten major development areas.
Five elements: improving the ability to innovate, deep integration of information and industrialization, strengthening basic capabilities, quality control and brand building, and green manufacturing. Five major projects: innovative engineering, intelligent manufacturing engineering, green manufacturing engineering, and high-end equipment innovation projects. There are six areas related to the Top Ten Development Neighborhoods: high-end CNC machine tools and robots, aerospace equipment technology, marine engineering and high-tech communications, advanced tracks and equipment, new energy vehicles, and agricultural machinery.
Lu Chao believes that entrepreneurs should profoundly understand the innovative technologies related to new energy. Learn about the top 10 key tasks of the future gear industry. He said that in 2025, there will be huge challenges in the next 10 years. Taking automobiles as an example, it is estimated that in 2030, pure electric power will reach 30% of the world, and 36 million pure electric vehicles will be developed. Gears that match traditional cars will continue to be replaced by new technologies. Wheel-side motor drive, hub motor drive and other traditional engines and transmission systems have replaced the bridge gears and drive shafts, bridge gear sockets and gearboxes in the era of hub motor drive. optimism.
The crisis is an opportunity, where is the opportunity?
Lu Chao believes that there are four major opportunities in China's gear industry. First of all, there is an opportunity for the industrialization of automatic transmissions. The parts and components that will be matched in the next 3-5 years will be developed in a blowout manner. For example, in 2015, the sales of Shanghai Automotive Gear Factory will be More than 125 billion, it is likely to become the industry leader, mainly relying on the transformation of automatic transmission production, although its total output has fallen, but the total sales have increased, because the added value has increased, the original traditional to buy 700 yuan, now automatically The gearbox sells 15,000 yuan, a gap of 20 times. Another example is Shandong Shengrui Co., Ltd., which sold 3,000 units in 2014 and sold 30,000 units in 2015, a 10fold increase.
The second is the opportunity for new energy industrialization. From January to October 2015, it has tripled and 200,000 units. By 2020, China's new energy vehicles will reach 1 million units, and in 2025, the annual output will reach 5 million units. It will be explosive, and it will be a state of micro-growth or zero growth of our traditional vehicles.
Second is the opportunity for the industrialization of smart cars. At the same time, take the opportunity of internationalization.
Lu Chao believes that the two bottlenecks affecting the development of enterprises, first of all, are backward technology, so technological progress is required. The second is that technology investment has not kept up. Therefore, the two are indispensable. In the past, car innovation looked at Germany. Today, car innovation looks at Tesla in the US Silicon Valley. Innovation is an inexhaustible motive. Internationalization is to truly achieve high-end products in order to achieve China's dream of becoming a national powerhouse.
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